Find
the signal.
Start with a question. Look for data that can answer it, including the evidence we’d rather ignore.
Curiosity, followed by a little scrutiny.
An interesting idea is a starting point.
The work is finding out whether it holds up.
Follow the question.
Then the evidence.
Find
Question
the model.
Test the assumptions. A convincing chart is a reason to look closer, not a reason to stop.
Change
our minds.
Keep what holds up. Drop what doesn’t. Try to do this before calling it a strategic pivot.
Two directors.
Several opinions.
Byron
Director · Head of Prevailing Opinions
“What if?” is usually followed by a new spreadsheet.
Hasnain
Director · Chief Headwind Officer
“Up and to the right” is not a methodology.
Adjust the confidence.
Keep the evidence.
Our outlook generator turns a little conviction into a lot of commentary. Move the slider and see how the story changes.
It’s a joke, not a market forecast.
CautiousCertain
Cautiously optimistic. Enthusiastically overdressed.
Open a spreadsheet, look thoughtfully out of a window, and change absolutely nothing.